中国经济必须审慎推进
China in 2012: fixated on stability as the pressures mount without and within.
History will look back on 2012 as the year when China anointed its "fifth generation" of leaders and shifted to a slower growth trajectory, writes Yukon Huang. This transition will take place against a backdrop of daunting internal challenges — increasing social unrest, widening income disparities and both ecological and man-made disasters — and of escalating external tensions, stemming from America's "pivot" to Asia and simmering regional worries about China's economic rise.
历史会这样回首2012年：这一年，中国“第五代”领导层亮相，同时中国经济转向较低速增长的轨道。这种转变发生的背景，将是一系列令人畏惧的国内挑战——不断增加的社会不安定，不断扩大的收入差距，以及生态和人为的灾难——加上不断升级的外部紧张，这源于美国重新转向亚洲，同时亚太邻国对中国的经济崛起越来越感到忧虑。
While the political system will be fixated on preserving stability as new leaders take the helm, reduced economic flexibility could thwart Beijing's intentions to do so.
在新的领导层刚刚接手之际，中国的政治体制会继续将注意力放在保持稳定上，但经济弹性的降低，可能挫败北京方面在这方面的意图。
In truth, slower growth of about 8 per cent could be better for China and for the world. More environmentally sustainable and equitable outcomes would ease popular concerns and higher consumption would ease tensions over global trade.
其实，中国经济增速放缓至8%左右，对中国乃至世界都是一件好事。更具环境可持续性、更加公平的局面，将缓解社会忧虑，而更高的消费将缓解全球贸易紧张。
But many foresee an economic collapse, arguing that a prolonged eurozone crisis coupled with a property bubble could render vast swaths of Chinese industry unprofitable. This would reveal hidden financial vulnerabilities and feed a downward spiral. Others believe that Beijing has ample resources to avoid a crisis, but argue that, with a growth model based on infrastructure and land sales, and with exchange and interest rates rigidly controlled, it may not have all the necessary tools at its disposal.
但许多人预测将会出现经济崩盘，他们认为，旷日持久的欧元区危机加上房地产泡沫，将使相当大一部分中国工业失去盈利能力。这将暴露出各种隐藏的金融脆弱性，推动形成一场螺旋式下降。其他人认为，北京方面有充足的资源可以避免一场危机，不过他们指出，由于中国的增长模式依赖于基建和土地出售，且汇率和利率受到僵硬控制，它也许并没有所有必要工具。
Domestically, an increasingly active middle class is generating pressure for more accountable governance. Mounting inequalities have nurtured a sense of injustice; 200m migrant workers remain second-class citizens and corruption is worsening. Tackling these problems is urgent, but China's economic successes have fostered an unwarranted self-confidence. Instead, motivated by the Arab spring, the system has moved aggressively to contain any social discontent that might spark more politically sensitive movements.
就国内而言，日益活跃的中产阶层正形成压力，要求得到问责制度更健全的治理。愈演愈烈的不平等滋生了一种不公正感；两亿农民工仍然受到二等公民的待遇，腐败也有增无减。对付这些问题的任务十分紧迫，但中国的经济成就助长了一种无端的自信。于是，在阿拉伯之春的刺激下，中国的体制采取激进举措，压制可能引发政治敏感运动的任何社会不满。
China's economic prowess is also seen by outsiders as having stimulated nationalism in a generation removed from the Cultural Revolution. Beijing's belligerent responses to overlapping maritime claims have heightened worries about its security objectives in a region already wary of its economic clout. This is one factor in Japan's decision to relax its ban on weapons exports; to China's dismay, it has also driven its neighbours to support a stronger US presence in Asia and has complicated regional trade integration.
在外界看来，中国的经济实力还在从未经历文化大革命的年轻一代中，激发起民族主义情绪。北京方面在对待海上主权争议时的强硬回应，在本已对中国经济实力产生戒心的亚太区加剧了各方对中国军事目标的担心。这也是促使日本决定放松武器出口禁令的原因之一；令中国沮丧的是，其行为还推动邻国支持美国加强自己在亚洲的存在，并使得地区贸易一体化变得复杂。
The potential for conflict will force China and the US to redefine their roles in a shifting environment that neither is comfortable with. Tensions will be aggravated by anti-China sentiment during the American elections. Asian countries are in a position to delineate the boundaries of influence for these two powers but, given their varied interests, alliances will shift depending on individual concerns.
爆发冲突的潜在可能性，将迫使中国和美国在不断变幻的环境中重新定义各自的角色，双方都对这种环境感到不安。美国大选期间的反华情绪将使紧张气氛加剧。亚洲国家将勾勒出这两个大国的影响力范围，但考虑到各国的利益各有不同，取决于各自的具体关切，联盟的构成也将变化。
China must walk a narrow line at a time when its outgoing leadership is reluctant to take any far-sighted decisions.
在即将卸任的中国领导层不愿做出任何有远见的决定时，中国必须沿着一条狭窄的道路审慎推进。
The writer is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment and a former World Bank country director for China. Read other predictions for the world economy, politics and finance in 2012 at
本文作者为卡内基国际和平基金会(Carnegie Endowment)高级研究员、世界银行(World Bank)中国业务局前局长，译者/何黎
