年 东亚不会爆发战争的信心

Few years in recent decades dawned with as much of a sense of pessimism as 2014. One consistent theme in the predictions for the year was that 2014 looked eerily similar to 1914. Most pundits predicted doom and gloom, especially in east Asia. Yet, while there were many horrific events — from thedowning of flight MH17 over Ukraine, to the abduction of hundreds of schoolgirls in Nigeria and the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant — we have avoided outright world war. Now that the year is closed, with no repetition of 1914, it may be wise to investigate why the pundits were wrong, particularly on their ideas around the potential for conflict in Asia.

近几十年来，很少有年份像2014年那样一开始就充满那么多的悲观情绪。对2014年的预测贯穿了一个主题，即这一年看起来与1914年相似得让人害怕。大多数学者的预测都是悲观和令人沮丧的，尤其是对于东亚。然而，虽然发生了许多可怕的事件——从马航MH17航班在乌克兰坠落，到尼日利亚数百女学生被绑架，以及“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(Isis)的崛起——但我们避免了全面的世界大战。现在，2014年已结束，没有重现1914年的悲剧。探究为什么这些学者预测错了（特别是他们认为亚洲存在冲突可能性的想法）或许是明智的。

These were no lightweight pundits. The eminent historian Margaret MacMillan, in an essay for Brookings in December 2013, said, “We are witnessing, as much as the world of 1914, shifts in the international power structure, with emerging powers challenging the established ones.” She added, “the same is happening between the US and China now, and also between China and Japan”, and also said that “there is potential for conflict between China and two of its other neighbours — Vietnam and Malaysia — as well.”

这些专家都不是轻量级的。杰出的历史学家玛格丽特•麦克米伦(Margaret MacMillan)在2013年12月的一篇为布鲁金斯学会(Brookings)撰写的文章中说：“像1914年的世界一样，我们正在经历国际权力结构的转换，新兴大国正在挑战老牌大国。”她补充说，“如今，同样的一幕正发生在美国与中国，以及中国与日本之间”，同时她还表示，“中国与它另外两个邻国——越南和马来西亚——也有爆发冲突的可能性。”

Graham Allison, the famous Harvard professor, also warned that east Asia was headed towards the “Thucydides Trap”, adding: “When a rapidly rising power rivals an established ruling power, trouble ensues.” In early 2013, the then prime minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, warned that 2013 was looking dangerously like 1913. The Economist also warned at the end of 2013, “A century on, there are uncomfortable parallels with the era that led to the outbreak of the first world war.”

哈佛大学著名教授格雷厄姆•阿利森(Graham Allison)也警告说，东亚已走向“修昔底德陷阱”(Thucydides’s trap)，他并补充道：“当一个迅速崛起的大国与一个老牌霸权国竞争时，麻烦接踵而来。”2013年初，时任卢森堡首相的让-克洛德•容克(Jean-Claude Juncker)警告称，2013年看起来像1913年一样危险。2013年底，《经济学人》杂志(The Economist)也警告说，“一个世纪已过去，当今世界却与那个导致第一次世界大战爆发的时代有不少相似之处，令人不安。”

I experienced this pessimism personally in Davos in January 2014. Several leading western intellectuals asked me whether war would break out between China and Japan. I was so confident that there would be no war in east Asia that I offered to take bets with ten-to-one odds against myself with eminent western journalists. Two took up my bets. And I will be collecting on these bets when I return to Davos in January.

2014年1月，我在达沃斯亲身感受到了这种悲观情绪。几位著名西方学者问我中国和日本之间是否会爆发战争。我非常有信心东亚不会发生战争，以至于我提出以1赔10的赔率与西方知名记者们打赌。两位记者接受了我的赌约。今年1月回到达沃斯时，我将收取他们的赌注。

Why was I so confident that there would be no war in east Asia, either in the East China Sea or the South China Sea? The simple answer is that I know the Asian dynamic. While many Asian neighbours will make angry nationalist statements (and they have to do so to manage popular nationalist sentiments), they are also careful and pragmatic in their deeds.

为什么我如此有信心东亚不会爆发战争，无论在东中国海还是南中国海？答案很简单，因为我了解推动亚洲变化的力量。虽然许多亚洲邻国会发出愤怒的民族主义声明（他们必须这样做来应对普遍的民族主义情绪），但他们的行动是谨慎和务实的。

For over two decades I have been writing about the rise of Asia and the dynamic driving it. There is an extraordinary consensus among east Asian leaders that Asia needs to use this window of opportunity to focus on economic development and growth. War is the biggest obstacle to development. If Asians were truly stupid, they would engage in such wars and derail their enormous development promise. Most Asian leaders, barring North Korea, understand well the dangers of war. Hence, while there will be tensions and rivalries in the region, there will be no wars in the region, in 2014 or in 2015. As 2015 unfolds, I would like to encourage all western pundits to understand the underlying Asian dynamic on its own terms, and not on the basis of western preconceptions.

过去二十多年间，我一直在写关于亚洲崛起及其推动力量的文章。东亚各国领导人之间有一个了不起的共识：亚洲需要利用当前的机会之窗，把重点放在经济发展和增长上。战争是发展的最大阻碍。如果亚洲人真的愚蠢，他们或会卷入这样的战争，破坏自己巨大的发展前景。大多数亚洲国家（除了朝鲜）的领导人，都很明白战争的危险。因此，虽然这一地区会出现局势紧张和对抗，但无论在2014年还是2015年都不会爆发战争。随着2015年缓缓展开，我想鼓励所有西方学者根据亚洲本身的情况理解亚洲的根本发展动力，而非将理解建立在西方先入之见的基础上。