美国大选 王朝贵族气浓

In its early days, the United States was beset by rumours about plots to install a monarchy. Thankfully, in George Washington it had a president who understood the power of precedent. He removed his general’s uniform and gave up power after two terms. Thus was sealed the world’s most enduring republic. More than 200 years later, the US is bracing for the most dynastic contest in its history. The chances that either Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush will become its 45th president are high. The country’s elections are far more democratic than in Washington’s day. But there are grounds to worry that America is becoming less of a republic.

建国之初，美国盛传有人密谋要建立一个君主制国家。值得庆幸的是，美国有懂得先例威力的乔治•华盛顿(George Washington)担任首任总统。他脱去了总司令的军服，并在两届任期结束后自愿放弃了权力。就这样，世界上生命力最持久的共和国诞生了。200多年后的今天，美国正迎来其史上最有“王朝政治”气息的一场竞选。美国第45任总统有极大可能将是希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)和杰布•布什(Jeb Bush)之中的一个。如今美国的选举比华盛顿时代民主得多。但今天我们却有理由担心，美国作为共和国将变得不那么纯粹。

The odd thing about the prospect of a 2016 “game of thrones” is that Mrs Clinton and Mr Bush would be the two best-qualified candidates to win their party’s nominations. Mrs Clinton has much more experience than any potential rival — and there are not many of those. Having served as secretary of state and twice elected as a US senator, Mrs Clinton would be as fluent in world affairs as any incoming president in recent memory. Only George HW Bush, who had headed the Central Intelligence Agency and served as vice-president, would have been better versed. Many fear the upcoming Democratic primaries will be Mrs Clinton’s coronation. That may be so. But she would take it on merit.

关于2016年“权力的游戏”的前景，反常的一点是，希拉里和杰布•布什将分别是各自所属政党内最有资格赢得提名的人选。希拉里比所有潜在对手都有经验得多，而她的潜在对手并不多。曾担任国务卿、并两次当选美国参议员的希拉里，在国际事务上的娴熟程度将不亚于近年来任何一位新上任的总统。唯一比她更有经验的只有老布什(George HW Bush)，他在就任总统之前曾担任中央情报局(CIA)局长和副总统。许多人担心，即将进行的民主党初选将成为希拉里的加冕典礼。或许如此。但假如她在初选中胜出，那也是靠实力。

Jeb Bush faces a far more contentious battle than Mrs Clinton. His chances of winning are lower. But the Republicans almost always opt for the establishment candidate in the end — Mitt Romney in 2012, John McCain in 2008, and, of course, Jeb’s brother, George W Bush in 2000. Mr Bush’s prospects might be weaker if there were other viable moderates in the field. But Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey, is too tainted by a Sopranos reputation for irascibility. As a first term senator in his forties, Marco Rubio of Florida sounds too much like Barack Obama.

杰布•布什面临的战斗将比希拉里激烈得多。他胜出的希望也小一些。但共和党最终几乎总是会选择有背景的候选人，就像2012年的米特•罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)和2008年的约翰•麦凯恩(John McCain)，更不用说2000年的小布什（George W Bush，杰布的哥哥）。如果有其他实力强劲的温和派人士参选，那么杰布•布什的胜算可能会低一些。但新泽西州长克里斯•克里斯蒂(Chris Christie)是出了名的《黑道家族》(Sopranos)般暴脾气。四十多岁、还在首届任期内的佛罗里达州参议员马可•鲁比奥(Marco Rubio)说话腔调又太像巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)了。

Mr Bush has twice served as governor of a big state (Florida). Moreover, he is the Republican with the likeliest crossover appeal in a general election. Most of the rest are too conservative. Mr Bush, like Mrs Clinton, would be his party’s most effective nominee.

杰布•布什曾担任两届大州（佛罗里达州）州长。此外，他是最有可能在大选中吸引多个选民群体的共和党竞选人。其他共和党竞选人都太保守了。杰布•布什和希拉里一样，如果获得提名，都会成为各自所属政党最有可能赢得大选的总统候选人。

Yet there is something profoundly disturbing about the prospect of another Clinton or Bush presidency. Should either win in 2016, then by the time he or she completed their second term, the US would have had a Bush or a Clinton in the White House for 36 of the previous 44 years. There are inbred autocracies with richer blood circulation than this. Nor would that necessarily be the end of the Bush-Clinton story. Chelsea Clinton has consistently refused to rule out running for elected office. In recent years she has taken an increasingly high-profile role at the family’s philanthropic organisation, the Clinton Foundation . Bright though she clearly is, it is hard to believe she was picked on merit. In an age driven by philanthrocapitalism, Chelsea has inherited a starring role.

然而，又一个克林顿或布什家族的人担任美国总统，这种前景有令人极度不安之处。假如两人中的一人在2016年赢得大选，那么到他（或她）完成两届任期之时，就会出现这样的情况：美国在过去44年里，有36年由布什或克林顿家族的人担任总统。这种情况再厉害一点，就是天然的独裁者温床了。而那时属于布什和克林顿家族的历史章节还不一定会结束。切尔西•克林顿(Chelsea Clinton)一直拒绝承诺不竞选公职。近年来她在克林顿家族的慈善基金会——克林顿基金会(Clinton Foundation)——扮演着越来越醒目的角色。尽管她无疑非常聪明，但我们很难相信她是因为才能被选中担任这个角色的。在一个慈善资本主义驱动的时代，切尔西继承到了一个主角位置。

The Bush story is multi-generational. Jeb Bush’s son, George Prescott Bush, 38, was elected in 2014 as Texas land commissioner — a state wide position that is a springboard for higher office. He takes his middle name from his great-grandfather, who was a US senator. He takes his first name from his grandfather and uncle, who were both US presidents. A couple of weeks ago, George P’s grandmother, Barbara Bush, 89, shed her apparent reluctance to see yet another Bush in the White House: “Our problems are so profound that America needs a leader who can renew the promise of this great nation,” she wrote in a mass email. The former first lady concluded by saying she was launching a financing vehicle called the “Run Jeb Run fund”. It is hard to imagine this happening in another democracy.

布什家族的故事跨越数代。2014年，杰布•布什之子、现年38岁的乔治•普雷斯科特•布什(George Prescott Bush)当选德州土地专员，这是一个全州级别的职位，能够为更高级别职位充当跳板。他的中间名来自曾担任美国参议员的曾祖父，名字来自爷爷和伯伯，两人都曾担任美国总统。乔治•普雷斯科特•布什的奶奶、现年89岁的芭芭拉•布什(Barbara Bush)一度似乎不希望再看到布什家的人执掌白宫，然而几周前，这位前第一夫人改变了态度，她群发邮件称：“我们的问题是如此严重，美国需要一位能够让这个伟大民族再次变得充满希望的领导人。”她在邮件末尾称，打算启动一个名为“竞选吧杰布基金”(Run Jeb Run fund)的融资工具。很难想象这种事情会在其他民主国家发生。

The other odd aspect of the Bush-Clinton game is that it is new to US presidential democracy (there have been plenty of family businesses at the state level). Among the founding fathers, only John Adams, the second president, had an offspring who ran for the top job — John Quincy Adams (he became the sixth president). Neither Washington, nor Thomas Jefferson, nor James Madison, were followed by namesakes. Among those who shared a name, Franklin Roosevelt (32nd president) was a distant cousin of Theodore (26th) whom he met only a few times. Their presidencies were more than 20 years apart. The US won the world’s admiration by often electing men from humble origins. The myth of having been raised in a log cabin was close to reality for Abraham Lincoln, America’s greatest president. He, too, was the last of his family line. Presidents such as Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and, of course, Barack Obama, rose up from modest backgrounds.

这场布什对克林顿家族的游戏另一个反常的地方在于，美国的总统制民主制度以往从未遇到过这样的事情（在州一级的职位上有过许多家族垄断的情况）。在美国的开国元勋中，只有第二任总统约翰•亚当斯(John Adams)有后代竞选总统一职（亚当斯之子约翰•昆西德•亚当斯(John Quincy Adams)后成为美国第6任总统）。华盛顿、托马斯•杰弗逊(Thomas Jefferson)、詹姆斯•麦迪逊(James Madison)都没有同姓的后代当选过美国总统。在那些同姓的总统中，富兰克林•罗斯福（Franklin Roosevelt，第32任总统）是西奥多•罗斯福（Theodore Roosevelt，第26任美国总统）的远房表亲，两人只见过几次面，并且两人担任总统的时间相隔了20余年。美国往往选择出身卑微者担任总统，这一点令世界钦佩。亚伯拉罕•林肯(Abraham Lincoln)在一间小木屋里长大的故事，跟真实情形相差不远，他是美国最伟大的总统。他也是林肯家族最后一个担任总统的人。怀特•艾森豪威尔(Dwight Eisenhower)、理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)、罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)，当然还有巴拉克•奥巴马，都出身于普通人家。

So, indeed, did Bill Clinton. But here is the thing. At a time of rising inequality — and in an era where the rich tend to be hard working — those who do well in today’s US tend to be the offspring of those who do well on merit. They are given every educational advantage. US society is taking on the character of ahereditary meritocracy. It is far preferable to the indolent aristocracy so rightly abhorred in Washington’s day. But in one respect it is more insidious. Those who believe they have succeeded on merit alone are often free of self-doubt. This can blind them to the perceptions of others. If 2016 is indeed to be a Clinton-Bush contest, we should expect a low turnout.

诚然，比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)也出身于普通人家。然而现在问题来了：在一个不平等日益加剧的年代、也是一个富人往往努力工作的年代，今日美国那些志得意满的人，往往是那些靠自身才能获得成功的人的后代。他们在教育上优势占尽。美国社会开始呈现一种继承式精英领导制的特点。比起华盛顿时代人们有充分理由厌恶的懒散的贵族统治，这种制度要好得多。但在某个方面，它的隐患更加严重。那些认为自己的成功完全靠自身才能的人，往往不具备自我怀疑精神。这可能会让他们听不进他人的意见。如果2016年大选真的是一场克林顿对布什家族的竞争，可以料想投票率会很低。