保守党执政联盟将有利于英国

The hue and cry of Britain’s general election obscures an inconvenient truth. The first peacetime coalition since the 1930s is likely to be followed by another inconclusive election. The old world of two party politics delivering decisive single party government may be over.

英国大选中的喧闹声掩盖了一个不好说出口的事实。英国自上世纪30年代以来首届诞生于和平时期的联合政府即将任满，但很可能再次迎来一场没有决定性结果的选举。两党政治产生行动果决的一党政府的旧世界或已终结。

David Cameron, prime minister, and Ed Miliband, the Labour party leader, still hope they can snatch outright victory on May 7. Voters appear unmoved. This has been a dispiriting campaign, where a few dozen swing constituencies have been targeted like battleground states in a US presidential election. For Cuyahoga County, Ohio, read Solihull, West Midlands.

现任首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)和工党(Labour party)党魁埃德•米利班德(Ed Miliband)仍然希望在5月7日的选举中取得全面胜利。选民看上去无动于衷。这是一场令人沮丧的竞选，几十个摇摆选区就像美国总统选举中的摇摆州一样，被各党派激烈争夺。你只用把西米德兰兹郡(West Midlands)的索利哈尔(Solihull)，想象成俄亥俄州的凯霍加县(Cuyahoga)。

A tactical, data-driven campaign mobilising core supporters ignores how Tony Blair and, more recently, Angela Merkel in Germany reached out to the centre ground and won three successive elections. The lesson should still hold true in Britain, despite the fragmentation of politics represented by the rise of the Scottish National party and the europhobic UK Independence party.

这场竞选讲究策略、依赖数据，动员核心支持者，而忽略了前英国首相托尼•布莱尔(Tony Blair)以及德国现任总理安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)走中间路线连续三次赢得选举的经验。这一经验在英国应该仍然管用，尽管苏格兰民族党(SNP)和恐欧的英国独立党(UKIP)崛起使英国政坛碎片化。

Five years ago, the prospect of coalition government attracted dire predictions of instability in markets and gridlock at Westminster. Neither proved true. The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition has shown European-style cohabitation can work. Curiously, Mr Cameron has not trumpeted its successes. He has preferred to wage a campaign of fear. Labour, he argues, would prove untrustworthy on the economy; and a Labour government would be held hostage by a separatist Scottish National party. The risk of a cross-border leftist alliance is not negligible; but even some Tories worry that its invocation encourages English nationalism.

5年前曾流传一种悲观预言，认为联合政府上台将导致市场动荡，议会也将陷入僵局。这两点都没有成真。保守党与自民党(The Liberal Democrats)的结盟证明了欧洲式的联合执政行得通。奇怪的是，卡梅伦并未大肆宣扬联合政府的成功。他选择打“恐惧”牌。他提出，工党的经济政策不可靠；工党政府将被奉行独立的苏格兰民族党绑架。出现一个跨境左翼联盟的风险不可忽视，但就连一些保守党人也担心，总提这一点将会助长英格兰的民族主义情绪。

Labour’s campaign has also played relentlessly to its core vote. Mr Miliband has belatedly signed up to balance the budget in the next parliament. Fearful of public sector unions, he has not specified where heavy spending cuts would fall. He has rarely met a market he did not consider to be broken. Only Nick Clegg, the embattled Liberal Democrat leader, has occupied the centre ground. He has argued persuasively that the Lib Dems contributed to sensible fiscal consolidation and tempered the wilder Tory impulses, particularly on Europe.

工党在竞选活动中也不遗余力地争取核心选民。米利班德承诺在下届议会推动预算平衡，尽管他这么说有点晚了。因为担心遭到公共部门工会的反对，他没有具体阐明削减开支的重头戏将落在哪里。很少有一个市场在他看来是不失灵的。占据中间道路的只有眼下处境不妙的自民党党魁尼克•克雷格(Nick Clegg)。他令人信服地指出，自民党促进了合理的财政整固，缓和了保守党一些较为疯狂的冲动，特别是在欧洲问题上。

The Financial Times has no fixed party political allegiances, but we have a clear vision of the priorities for the next administration.

英国《金融时报》没有固定支持某个党派，但我们清晰地看到了下一届政府应优先处理的问题。

The economic challenge goes beyond cutting public spending. The government must support enterprise and job creation. The dependence on credit-fuelled consumer spending and London-based financial services must be reduced. Britain’s productivity gap must be narrowed, by long-delayed investment in infrastructure, education and housing. A new constitutional settlement is needed, one that preserves the union and transfers powers rationally and fairly to the nations and regions of the UK. On Europe, it is time for constructive engagement. A new relationship would recognise the UK is not part of the monetary core but is still a vital member of the European family of nations.

经济方面的挑战不止是削减公共支出。政府必须支持企业和就业创造。必须减少对信贷推动的消费者支出和以伦敦为中心的金融服务业的依赖。必须落实推迟已久的基础设施、教育和住房投资，以缩小英国的生产力差距。此外还需要达成新的宪制协议，保留英国各民族之间的联盟，同时将权力合理、公平地下放给各民族和地区。至于欧洲问题，英国是时候采取建设性参与的态度了。与欧洲的新关系将承认英国不属于核心欧元区，但仍然是欧洲大家庭的关键成员。

The choice is therefore between a dynamic, flexible and open economy delivering higher living standards for all, and a pinched nationalism that clings to the past. Little England or Great Britain.

因此，我们有两个选择，一个是成为有活力、灵活、开放的经济体，让全体国民享有更高的生活水平，另一个是成为奉行民族主义、经济窘困、留恋过去的国家。这就是选择成为小英格兰还是大不列颠的问题。

The UK is in far better shape than in 2010. Growth has picked up sharply. The numbers of those in work are at an all-time high. About 2m new jobs have been created. But austerity spells a joyless recovery and the public finances remain fragile. The deficit is shrinking to an expected 4 per cent of national output this year. This is still too high but better than the near 12 per cent when the coalition took over.

当前英国经济形势比2010年要好得多。经济增长明显加快。就业人数创下历史纪录。新增就业岗位约200万个。但紧缩政策意味着复苏将是缺乏喜色的，公共财政也仍然脆弱。预计今年赤字将缩减为国民产出的4%。这仍然偏高，但联合政府刚上台时这个比例接近12%。

Britain needs a strong economy to fund the National Health Service and an ageing population. But a strong economy alone does not guarantee political stability. Today, the integrity of the United Kingdom remains at stake. The failure of the Scottish National party to win last September’s referendum on independence ought to have settled the issue for a generation. But if the SNP wins most of the 59 seats in Scotland, it could hold the balance of power at Westminster. At the very least, this will complicate new constitutional arrangements between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland; at worst, it could stoke separatist fire north and south of the river Tweed.

英国需要强劲的经济，来为国民卫生服务体系(NHS)和日益老龄化的人口提供资金。但仅凭强劲的经济无法保证政治稳定。眼下，联合王国的完整仍面临威胁。苏格兰民族党未能在去年9月的独立公投中取胜，这应该意味着至少二三十年内无须再担心苏独问题。但如果苏格兰民族党赢得苏格兰的大部分议席（共59个），它可能成为英国议会中的一支重要力量。至少，这种情况会让英格兰、苏格兰、威尔士和北爱之间的新宪制安排更加复杂；在最坏的情况下，它可能让特威德河（River Tweed，苏格兰与英格兰的界河——译者注）南北的独立主义火焰烧得更旺。

The second constitutional question turns on Europe. Should the Conservatives win an outright majority, Mr Cameron has pledged to re-negotiate the terms of UK membership and hold an in-out referendum within two years. His move threatens to consume the first two years of a Tory government. It could ultimately push Britain out of the bloc, a seismic change in the country’s relationship with its chief trading partners and for the balance of power in the EU itself. It might also break the Tory party.

第二个宪制问题则是关于欧洲的。卡梅伦已经承诺，假如保守党获得绝对多数票，他将重新就英国作为欧盟成员的条款进行谈判，并在两年内就英国是否留在欧盟举行全民公投。他的举动可能会耗去保守党政府的头两年任期。此举可能最终推动英国脱离欧盟，彻底改变英国与其主要贸易伙伴的关系、以及欧盟内部的力量平衡。此举还可能导致保守党分裂。

The preoccupation with Europe obscures a more troubling development. Britain’s standing in the world has diminished. Her Majesty’s armed forces have shrunk, and her diplomats reduced to handing out export brochures for business.

把注意力放在欧洲问题上，掩盖了一个更令人不安的变化。英国在世界的地位下降了。女王陛下的军队缩小了，她的外交官也沦落到帮企业派发出口宣传册的地步。

Two bloody wars of choice, in Afghanistan and Iraq, have carried a high price. Politicians on the left and right are increasingly looking inward. In Europe’s first post-cold war crisis in Ukraine, Mr Cameron has been a bystander, despite the UK being a signatory to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum covering Ukraine’s nuclear disarmament and territorial integrity. His insistence on spending 0.7 per cent on overseas aid sits ill with his refusal to commit to 2 per cent of GDP for the military.

在阿富汗和伊拉克，英国参与了两场不是非打不可的流血战争，付出了惨重代价。为此左右翼人士都日益把目光转向国内事务。英国是1994年《布达佩斯安全备忘录》(Budapest Memorandum)的签字国，备忘录内容包括乌克兰将放弃核武，而其他签字国会捍卫乌克兰的领土完整。但在乌克兰发生欧洲冷战后的第一场危机时，卡梅伦袖手旁观。他坚持海外援助支出应达到GDP的0.7%，但拒绝承诺军费支出至少要达到2%，这两点形成了鲜明反差。

The Conservatives’ economic record ought to provide a winning hand. The mix of a loose monetary policy and a tight fiscal policy has worked. Mr Cameron and his chancellor George Osborne, supported by Mr Clegg, showed political courage to tackle the public finances and shrink the state. The Tories have also driven two promising shifts in Britain’s political discourse: the challenge to the benefits culture and the re-introduction of much-needed rigour into the country’s schools.

保守党在经济方面的过往表现理应是它的优势。宽松货币政策与紧缩财政政策的组合拳行之有效。卡梅伦和财政大臣乔治•奥斯本(George Osborne)展现出政治魄力，去解决公共财政问题、缩小政府规模，而克莱格也支持他们的做法。保守党还推动英国的政治辩论中出现了两个有益变化：对福利文化的挑战，以及在英国的学校中重新推行严格的纪律。

Labour has been more competitive than expected. Mr Miliband has been vilified by the Tories, but he has stuck to his guns on Europe, refusing to cave in to demands for a referendum. His willingness to stand his ground deserves credit.

工党的竞争力已超出预期。米利班德不断受到保守党人诋毁，但他坚持自己对欧洲的看法，拒绝向公投要求让步。他这种坚守立场的态度值得赞扬。

Yet this cannot conceal the fundamental weakness in Labour’s plans. Mr Miliband is preoccupied with inequality. His prescription is an increase in taxes such as restoring the 50p level for high earners and imposing an ill-conceived mansion tax.

然而这无法掩盖工党竞选纲领中的根本性弱点。米利班德专注于社会不平等现象，他的策略是增加税收，比如恢复高收入者50%的所得税，以及实行考虑欠妥的豪宅税。

Mr Miliband has too often found himself on the wrong side of the argument. He promised to freeze energy prices shortly before world prices collapsed. An already heavily regulated banking sector and private landlords are now in his sights. He has stepped too far away from the New Labour position that markets can be harnessed to progressive outcomes. At times, he appears to be fighting his campaign in the style of France’s François Hollande in 2012. True, Mr Hollande secured victory but at the price of a weak economy and an exodus of talent, often to London.

米利班德常常发现自己言论失当。他刚承诺要“冻结”能源价格，国际能源价格就开始暴跌。现在他的目光又投向已受到严格监管的银行业以及私营业主。“新工党”认为可以让市场发挥积极作用，而米利班德偏离这一立场太远了。有时他的竞选方式似乎复刻了2012年时法国的弗朗索瓦•奥朗德(François Hollande)。诚然，奥朗德赢得了胜利，但代价是经济疲弱以及人才外流——通常流到伦敦。

At this delicate moment, the best outcome would be a continuation of the 2010 coalition between the Conservatives and Lib Dems. Mr Clegg’s party has proved a responsible partner in government. Tough decisions, such as the reversal of his party’s stance on university tuition fees, will hurt the party. The Lib Dems would be more awkward in a second term coalition. It is also far from clear whether they will have enough seats to be kingmakers with either the Tories or Labour.

在这个微妙的时刻，最好的结局将是延续2010年保守党和自民党的联盟。克雷格领导的自民党已证明是负责任的执政伙伴。但在一些棘手问题上的决定可能会伤害到自民党，比如该党在大学学费方面立场的转变。自民党在第二个执政联盟中将更加尴尬。而且目前也不能确定他们是否将拿下足够席位来辅佐保守党或工党。

Voters must decide not just on the party but also on the combination which would have the best chance of forming a stable, reform-minded government. The country would benefit from the countervailing force of Lib Dem moderation at Westminster. In seats where the Lib Dems are the incumbent or the main challenger, we would vote tactically for them.

选民们要选择的不仅是政党，还有政党联盟，推断哪些党派最有可能组建一个稳定的、具备改革意识的政府。自民党在议会中的抗衡力量将令英国受益。对于自民党人有希望保留或拿下的席位，我们会策略性地将票投给他们。

Ultimately, however, there is only one leader and one party that can head the government. There are risks in re-electing Mr Cameron’s party, especially on Europe. But there are greater risks in not doing so. Its instincts on the economy, business and reform of public services are broadly right. Mr Miliband has not offered a credible economic prospectus and would apply a brake on enterprise. In the circumstances, the FT would like to see a Conservative-led administration.

不过，归根结底只能有一名领袖、一个政党来领导英国政府。重选卡梅伦领导的保守党是有风险的，尤其在欧洲问题上，但不选他的风险更大。保守党在经济、商业以及公共服务改革方面的思路大致正确。米利班德没有拿出经济方面可信的的施政纲领，还将实施阻碍企业发展的政策。在这种情况下，英国《金融时报》希望见到一个由保守党领导的政府。