新加坡平民主义政策向何处去 Singapore ponders populist future after PAP victory

After being returned to power with its most emphatic general election victory since 2001, Singapore’s ruling People’s Action party must now determine how far it pushes ahead with its populist policies in the face of a slowing economy.

在获得自2001年以来最大选举胜利、再度掌握政权之后，新加坡执政党人民行动党(PAP)如今必须决定，在经济放缓的情况下，他们还要在多大程度上继续执行平民主义政策。

Having pocketed 83 of the 89 parliamentary seats and seen its vote share bounce back from a historic low of 60 per cent in 2011 to nearly 70 per cent, the PAP will now govern the Southeast Asian city-state for the next five years.

在把89个议会席位中的83个收入囊中、实现选票率从2011年60%的历史低点反弹至近70%之后，人民行动党将在未来五年里继续掌管这个东南亚城市国家。

Learning from its 2011 poll punishment, a chastened PAP spent the next four years attempting to address voters’ hot-button issues: reducing the number of incoming immigrants, handing cash to the elderly, constructing more homes to burst a potential house price bubble and improving creaking transport infrastructure.

从2011年选票率下降中吸取教训之后，历经磨难的人民行动党在接下来的4年里努力解决选民的热点问题：降低外来移民数量，向老年人发放现金，建造更多房屋以刺破潜在的房价泡沫，并且改善勉强运转的交通基础设施。

Speaking about its populist policies after Friday’s emphatic victory, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said the party, which has ruled Singapore for more than 50 years, would “redouble these efforts — but we must do this in a way that maintains the unique strengths of our system”.

在周五大胜之后谈到其平民主义政策时，李显龙表示，人民行动党将“加倍努力解决这些问题——但我们必须同时保持我们制度的独特优势”。人民行动党已在新加坡执政50多年了。

Michael Barr, associate professor of international relations at Flinders University in Adelaide, warned: “The danger is that the PAP will think that it has done all it needs to do and slip back into its old habits. It needs to maintain its political astuteness.”

澳大利亚阿德莱德的弗林德斯大学国际研究学院(the school of international studies at Flinders University)的副教授迈克尔巴尔(Michael Barr)警告称：“危险在于，人民行动党认为自己已做了所有需要做的，然后回到旧有习惯去。该党需要保持自己的政治智慧。”

Such a balancing act comes as the city-state’s economic growth contracted in the second quarter of 2015, seeing an annualised drop of 4 per cent compared with the previous three-month period.

人民行动党采取这种平衡性举动之际，这个城市国家的经济增长率在2015年第二季度变成负值，较前三个月相比经济规模降低了4%（年化率）。

DBS Bank, Singapore’s biggest lender, recently forecast 2015 economic growth of just 1.8 per cent, undershooting the government’s estimate of 2-2.5 per cent, which itself was cut from 2-4 per cent.

新加坡最大银行星展银行(DBS Bank)不久前预测，该国经济增长率仅为1.8%，低于2%至2.5%的政府估计值。而此前政府的估计值更高，为2%至4%。

The economic slowdown has been exacerbated by curbs to the country’s influx of immigrants, which comprises one-third of Singapore’s 5.5m population and has long fuelled the tropical island’s growth.

新加坡对移民进入的限制，加剧了该国的经济放缓。在550万总人口中占到三分之一的移民，长期以来一直推动着这个热带岛国的经济增长。

Wai Ho Leong, a Singapore-based economist at Barclays, said this would probably mean more focus on issues relating to the constraints on growth — “namely, the affordability of healthcare, a more optimal foreign-local labour force mix, the efficiency of public transportation and the quality of life for the ‘sandwiched’ middle income group”.

巴克莱(Barclays)驻新加坡经济学家梁伟豪(Leong Wai Ho)表示，这可能意味着，有关增长制约因素的问题会受到更多关注。这些因素“是指医疗服务的负担能力、更加优化的外籍-本国劳动力数量对比结构，高效的公共交通系统，以及‘夹在中间的’中产阶层的生活质量”。

Although local and multinational businesses have expressed discontent with the island’s tightening labour market, a return to the relatively open-tap immigration policies would probably spark anger among Singaporeans, who fret about the issue.

尽管本国和跨国企业对该岛日益趋紧的劳动力市场表示出不满，但重回相对自由的移民政策很可能将引发新加坡人的愤怒。新加坡人对移民问题颇为担心。

“With their ballots, Singaporean voters are signalling that the PAP must govern with empathy and less haughtiness, and not lose the common-man touch,” said Eugene Tan, a political analyst and associate professor of law at the Singapore Management University.

“由于手中握有选票，新加坡选民正在发出信号：人民行动党在治理国家时必须表现出同情心，减少傲慢情绪，不要丧失与普通民众的接触，”新加坡管理大学(Singapore Management University)政治分析人士、副教授陈庆文(Eugene Tan)表示。