普京为何从叙利亚撤军 Mercurial Putin keeps the west guessing in Syria

Vladimir Putin is full of surprises. His decision to withdraw Russia’s “basic forces” from Syria was forecast by no one. The Russian president’s courtiers will presumably be keeping him abreast of the many interpretations of his latest Syria gambit, no doubt emphasising the sagacity and success of his bold intervention in the region. So what does the balance sheet look like? And, in so far as it is possible to discern the motives of this most mercurial of leaders, what are they?

弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)是个充满惊奇的人物。没人预见到他从叙利亚撤出俄军“主要力量”的决定。想必这位俄罗斯总统的下属会时时向他报告人们对他在叙利亚的最新动作的各种解读，他们无疑还会强调他大胆介入该地区的睿智和成功。那么现在的局面是怎样的？如果有可能一窥这位极为善变的领导人的动机，这些动机又是什么呢？

When the Russian air force entered Syrian airspace last September, three of the president’s aims seemed clear. The first was to salvage the crumbling regime of Bashar al-Assad. The second was to re-establish Russia as an important actor in the Middle East. Mr Putin, who mocks the US and Europe for the fiascos of their regime-changing adventures from Iraq to Libya, also clearly intended to teach the west a lesson — and so relieve western pressure resulting from his own intervention in Ukraine. The lesson turned out to be a Russian remake of “shock and awe”.

去年9月俄罗斯空军进入叙利亚领空的时候，这位总统似乎有3个明确的目标。首先是挽救摇摇欲坠的巴沙尔•阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)政权。第二是重新确立俄罗斯作为中东地区重要参与者的地位。嘲笑美欧在从伊拉克到利比亚等地改换政权行动的惨败的普京，明显还有意给西方一个教训——并且减轻西方因为普京干预乌克兰事务而对俄罗斯施加的压力。事实表明这个教训是俄罗斯版本的“震慑与威吓”。

From the outset Russian warplanes struck at Sunni rebels threatening Damascus and Mr Assad’s coastal enclave in north-west Syria, rather than at Isis jihadis — a declared target of the operation. He used peace negotiations jointly chaired with the US in Geneva as a smokescreen behind which to lay waste to any middle ground between the Assad regime and Isis. This showed up the west as too feckless to help Sunni rebels whom the US and regional allies such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey had backed against the Assads.

从一开始，俄罗斯的战斗机打击的就不是其所宣称的行动目标——“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)圣战分子，而是威胁大马士革和阿萨德在叙利亚西北沿海地区飞地的逊尼派反叛分子。普京利用美俄共同主持的日内瓦和平谈判为烟幕，摧毁了阿萨德政权和ISIS之间的任何妥协空间。这让西方帮助逊尼派反叛分子的举动显得毫无意义。美国及其地区盟友沙特和土耳其等国此前一直支持这些反叛分子对抗阿萨德政权。

The regime regained ground. More refugees swarmed to the Turkish border. Mr Putin’s Syria policy was doing double duty as his European policy, exacerbating the migrant crisis pulling the EU apart, and polarising the politics of some of its member states.

阿萨德政权收复了失地。更多难民涌向土耳其边境。普京的叙利亚政策正如他的欧洲政策一样一箭双雕，一方面加深了撕裂欧盟(EU)的移民危机，另一方面也使欧盟的一些成员国的政治两极化。

A bonus for Mr Putin was to add to the discomfiture of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, through whose territory runs the refugee road to Europe. Having already contributed to the de facto partition of Syria by hardening the defences of the Assad statelet, Mr Putin then extended Russia’s complicit support to US-backed Syrian Kurdish militia, whose fight against Isis is enabling them to assemble a Kurdish entity below Turkey’s border, the dissolution of which is now Mr Erdogan’s paramount aim.

对普京而言，额外收获是让土耳其总统雷杰普•塔伊普•埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)的处境更为难堪，该国是移民前往欧洲的通路。通过加强阿萨德统辖领土的防务力量，助推叙利亚的事实分裂后，普京又为得到美国支持的叙利亚库尔德民兵组织提供支持，这些组织与ISIS的斗争使他们得以在土耳其边境下方集结为一个库尔德人群体。促使这个群体解体是埃尔多安目前的首要目标。

But what is the Kremlin’s game now? The Russian pullback coincides with the resumption of peace talks in Geneva. Despite this month’s partial ceasefire in Syria, these still look forlorn, even if Mr Putin says his aim was always to create conditions for a political transition out of the war.

克里姆林宫现在在打什么算盘呢？在俄罗斯撤军的同一时间，日内瓦的和平谈判也重新启动了。尽管叙利亚本月实现了部分停火，这些谈判看起来依然难以取得成功，即使普京表示他的目标一直是为通过政治手段结束战争创造条件。

He might conclude that Mr Assad has no long-term future. His minority regime has committed mass murder among the majority Sunni population. Why incur the bitter enmity of Sunnis in Syria, throughout the Middle East and inside Russia’s borders? Russia arguably has most to fear from foreign fighters returning from Syria and Iraq — Isis typically expends European volunteers as suicide bombers to clear a path for elite fighters such as battle-hardened Chechens.

普京可能得出结论，从长期来看阿萨德没有未来。他的少数族裔政权在占多数的逊尼派人口中制造了大规模屠杀。为何要在叙利亚、整个中东和俄罗斯国内招致逊尼派穆斯林的仇恨呢？可以说，俄罗斯最为忧虑的是从叙利亚和伊拉克返回的外籍士兵——ISIS通常将欧洲志愿者用作自杀性炸弹袭击者，为精英战士扫清道路，比如久经沙场的车臣分子。

Iran, which jointly holds Mr Assad as a ward of state, may also judge that to continue along Russia’s scorched-earth path in Syria would scupper its re-engagement with the west and sabotage any chance it has of being accepted as a legitimate regional power by Sunni Arabs. Russian and Iranian ministers have met several times in Tehran and Moscow over the past month.

和俄方一起将阿萨德作为保护对象的伊朗或者会做出这样的判断：继续俄罗斯在叙利亚的焦土政策会破坏伊朗与西方重新建立的联系，并且毁掉伊朗被逊尼派阿拉伯人接纳为合法地区力量的任何机会。过去一个月中俄罗斯和伊朗的部长们在德黑兰和莫斯科进行了几次会晤。

So far, so many hypotheses. As some Russian jets start withdrawing, only Mr Putin — the geopolitical puppeteer with a taste for intrigue — can know if this is the start of Syria’s endgame.

到目前为止有太多的猜测。在一些俄罗斯战机开始撤离之际，只有普京这个带着一丝密谋味道的地缘政治木偶操纵者，才知道这是否是叙利亚终局的开始。