阿拉伯青年如何看待ISIS What Arab youth thinks of Isis

The rise of Isis is the Middle East’s greatest challenge in the eyes of young Arabs who identify a lack of jobs as the main recruitment driver for the Sunni militant group.

在阿拉伯青年眼中，“伊斯兰国”(ISIS)的崛起是中东最大的挑战。他们认为，工作机会的缺乏是这个逊尼派军事集团能够招募成员的最主要推动因素。

Many respondents to the annual Asda’a Burson-Marsteller Arab youth survey were unable to explain why anyone would join Isis. But they said its rise was helped by growing sectarian tensions as well as the jihadis’ belief in the superiority of their interpretation of Islam. But three-quarters said they do not believe Isis will establish an Islamic state.

在一年一度的Asda'a博雅公关(Burson-Marsteller)阿拉伯青年调查中，许多受调查者无法解释，为何会有人想要加入ISIS。但他们表示，日益加剧的宗派紧张局势，以及圣战分子认为他们对伊斯兰教义的诠释至高无上的想法，助长了ISIS的崛起。但四分之三的受调查者表示，他们不相信ISIS会建立一个伊斯兰国家。

The survey of 3,500 18-24 year olds across 16 Arab countries is the broadest poll of young people — the majority of the population in a region characterised by increasing instability, repressive political systems and few outlets for free expression.

共有3500人接受了这次调查，来自16个阿拉伯国家，年龄从18到24岁。这是在阿拉伯年轻人中间进行的最广泛的调查——在这个以日益不稳定、实行专制政治制度和极其缺乏自由表达渠道为特征的地区，年轻人占多数人口。

The respondents ranked Isis terrorism, unemployment and civil unrest as the biggest challenges facing the region.

受调查者将ISIS恐怖主义、失业、社会动乱列为该地区面临的最大挑战。

“The organisation [Isis] thrives on political, economic, social and religious failures,” said Hassan Hassan, an analyst, in a white paper accompanying the survey. “Daesh [Arabic for Isis] may weaken and disappear, but the underlying sickness will remain and similar groups will emerge if that sickness is not addressed.”

“政治、经济、社会和宗教方面的失败造成了该组织（即ISIS）的兴盛，”分析人士哈桑•哈桑(Hassan Hassan)在调查附带的一份白皮书中表示，“‘达伊沙’（Daesh，阿拉伯语中对ISIS的称呼）可能变得衰弱和消失，但根本病症依然存在，如果不加以解决，还会有类似的团体出现。”

In a sign of the changes that swept the region since the 2011 Arab uprisings, 36 per cent of respondents said the Arab world was better off for the revolts, down from 72 per cent in 2012. Only in Egypt do most young people believe the country to be a better place. Two-thirds of youths in the Gulf and most in north Africa say promoting stability is more important than promoting democracy.

体现2011年阿拉伯起义之后席卷该地区的变革的一个迹象是，有36%的受调查者认为，阿拉伯世界因为起义变得更好，比例低于2012年的72%。只有在埃及，多数年轻人相信他们的国家变得更好。海湾地区三分之二的年轻人和北非的大多数年轻人表示，促进稳定比推进民主更重要。

Yet youths across the region, particularly in Saudi Arabia, supported more personal freedoms and rights for women.

不过，各地年轻人都支持改善个人自由和女性权利，尤其是在沙特阿拉伯。

The rise of Isis has been accompanied by increasing sectarian strife with Sunni Saudi Arabia locked in a regional tussle with Shia Iran and its regional proxies, such as Hizbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

除了ISIS崛起，宗派冲突也在加剧。逊尼派的沙特阿拉伯和什叶派的伊朗及其地区代理人，比如黎巴嫩真主党(Hizbollah)和也门胡塞(Houthi)叛军，深陷地区争斗。

Almost half of the respondents said the Sunni-Shia divide has widened during the past five years, with the figure rising to 88 per cent in Yemen and 62 per cent in Iraq, where Isis has benefited from Sunni dissent against the Shia-run government. Syrians were not included in the survey.

近一半受调查者表示，逊尼派与什叶派的分裂在过去5年中扩大了。这个比例在也门提高到了88%。在伊拉克也提高到了62%，在那里ISIS受益于逊尼派对什叶派政府的反对。此次调查未覆盖叙利亚人。

“Growing sectarian tensions in the Middle East strengthen the extremist narrative of Daesh — that Shia are the enemies and conflicts involving Iranian-backed militias from Yemen to Lebanon are part of a wider war against Sunni Muslims,” said Mr Hassan.

“中东地区不断加剧的宗派紧张局势支持了达伊沙极端主义的叙事——即什叶派是敌人，从也门到黎巴嫩等地，伊朗支持的民兵组织参与的冲突是针对逊尼派穆斯林的更广泛战争的一部分，”哈桑说。

The survey, which started in 2008, found that most Arab youths continue to regard Saudi Arabia as their main ally, followed by the US and the UAE.

这一调查从2008年开始。该调查发现，大多数阿拉伯青年依然将沙特阿拉伯视为他们的主要盟友，紧随其后的是美国和阿联酋。

But attitudes toward Iran have softened over the past two years, especially in Shia Iraq and Lebanon, and in the Palestinian territory, where 43 per cent of respondents identified the Islamic republic as an ally.

但对伊朗的态度在过去两年有所软化，尤其是在什叶派的伊拉克和黎巴嫩，以及巴勒斯坦地区，后一个地区43%的受调查者将这个伊斯兰共和国看作盟友。

Views of the US are also shifting. While it remains well regarded in the Gulf states despite a recent rise in tensions over Iran’s nuclear deal, Washington is seen as an enemy by two-thirds of young people in the Levant and in Yemen. More than nine out of 10 young Iraqis regard the US as an enemy, although the US is backing Baghdad in its fight against Isis.

对美国的看法也在转变。尽管因为伊朗核协议，最近美国和海湾国家之间的关系趋于紧张，海湾国家的受调查者依然对美国有好感。而在地中海东部地区和也门，三分之二的年轻人将美国视为敌人。尽管美国正在支持伊拉克打击ISIS，90%以上的伊拉克年轻人将美国视为敌人。

The collapse in oil prices is also concern for Arab youths, especially those in oil-exporting countries. There is widespread opposition to fiscal rationalisation measures, such as ending subsidies on fuel and utilities that have been a key part of governments’ patrimonial cradle-to-grave support for their citizens.

油价暴跌也是阿拉伯年轻人担心的问题，尤其是在那些石油出口国。受调查者普遍反对财政合理化举措，比如取消对燃油和公用事业费用的补贴，这些是政府对公民家长式的“从摇篮到坟墓”的支持的关键部分。

There has been little sign of popular opposition to the ending of subsidies but the survey shows that 86 per cent in Saudi Arabia and more than 90 per cent in Bahrain, Qatar and Oman oppose the measure — a potentially worrying sign for oil-exporting governments.

目前几乎没有民众反对取消这些补贴的迹象，但这次调查表明，沙特阿拉伯86%的受调查者以及巴林、卡塔尔和阿曼超过90%的受调查者反对这类措施——对石油出口国的政府而言，这是一个潜在地令人担忧的迹象。