美国盟友可能帮助ISIS赢得民心

The tortuous war against Isis is taking a treacherous turn. Two years after the militant Sunni group declared its brutal caliphate, the US and its allies in Iraq and Syria have begun a two-front offensive to dislodge the militant group from its strongholds in the Iraqi city of Falluja and Raqqa in Syria. But, while the campaign has made progress, the composition of the forces leading the battles in the two Arab Sunni cities is intensifying sectarian and ethnic tensions in the bitterly divided nations and beyond. The danger is that the US-led action will, ultimately, help Isis gain legitimacy as a defender of Sunnis — even if it cedes territory.

打击“伊斯兰国”(ISIS)的艰难战事正遭遇危险的转向。在这个逊尼派武装组织宣告成立其残暴的“哈里发国”两年后，美国及其在伊拉克和叙利亚的盟友在两条战线上对ISIS发起攻势，试图将该组织驱离其在伊拉克城市费卢杰(Falluja)和叙利亚城市拉卡(Raqqa)的大本营。但是，尽管这场战役取得进展，但主导向这两个逊尼派城市进攻的各派军事力量的构成，正在加剧这两个尖锐分裂国家乃至整个地区的宗派和民族关系紧张。当前的危险在于，美国领导的行动最终将帮助ISIS获得作为逊尼派守卫者的合法性——即便ISIS不得不放弃地盘。

Heightened fears in Syria, Iraq and the wider region about the offensive in Falluja and Raqqa bode ill for the long-term fight against the group. With western help channelled to militias beholden to the Shia regime in Iran and close to Tehran’s allies in Damascus, the fight is widely seen in the region as nakedly sectarian.

叙利亚、伊拉克以及整个地区对费卢杰和拉卡攻势的严重担忧，预示着对ISIS长期作战的前景不妙。随着西方援助流向听命于伊朗什叶派政权、且与德黑兰在大马士革的盟友关系密切的民兵组织，这场战斗正被整个地区普遍视为一场赤裸裸的宗派之战。

The US-backed offensive is the first of its kind since the American-led anti-Isis campaign began soon after the group swept into Iraq. America has long sought to avoid providing air support for Shia and Kurdish militias to fight in two Sunni areas at once: when Baghdad launched the battle to retake the city of Tikrit from Isis in March last year, Washington refrained from providing air strikes in support of the estimated 30,000 Shia fighters until the battle stalled three weeks later.

ISIS横扫伊拉克后不久，美国就领导了打击该组织的军事行动，但像这一次这样由美国提供战场支援的攻势还属首次。长期以来，美国一直试图避免向在这两个逊尼派区域作战的什叶派和库尔德武装力量同时提供空中支援：当巴格达方面去年3月发起从ISIS手中收复提克里特(Tikrit)的攻势时，华盛顿方面未向约3万名什叶派武装人员提供空中打击支援——直至三周后战局陷入僵持。

The US is presenting the two offensives as led by inclusive and national coalitions. In the region, however, sectarian polarisation is only growing. Arabic media outlets — which tend to echo Sunni political views — such as London-based al-Hayat newspaper, have focused coverage of Falluja on reports that Major General Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian spymaster, was leading the battle along with other militias beholden to Tehran. Al-Araby published a cartoon depicting American helicopters holding the people of Raqqa hostage beside an image of an Isis member doing the same to a condemned man.

美国把当前的这两场攻势说成是由包容和全球性的联盟所领导。然而，该地区的宗派分化只是在加剧。倾向于附和逊尼派政治观点的阿拉伯媒体——如总部设在伦敦的《生活报》(Al-Hayat)——在对费卢杰战况的报道中聚焦于伊朗间谍机构负责人卡西姆•索莱马尼(Qassem Soleimani)少将与听命于德黑兰的其他民兵组织共同领导着这场战斗。Al-Araby刊发的一幅漫画相当说明问题，画中美军直升机将拉卡市民挟持为人质，旁边是一名ISIS成员准备对一名死刑犯动手的画面。

More significant is a report from US-backed anti-Isis activist organisation, Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently . It announced last week that the fact that the battle in the city is being led by the People’s Protection Units (YPG) — with ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ party, the armed separatist group based in Turkey — is pushing residents to join forces with Isis. The YPG is seen as close to the Syrian regime and was allegedly engaged in displacement of Arab families in northern Syria, which Amnesty International said could amount to war crimes. The fact that a US-backed group is criticising the role of the Pentagon-backed YPG against a group that killed some of its colleagues is remarkable.

意义更重大的是美国支持的反ISIS活动组织“拉卡正被无声屠宰”(Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently)发布的一份报告。最近该组织宣称，拉卡的战斗正由库尔德人民保卫军(YPG)打头阵，而这个民兵组织与总部设在土耳其的武装分离组织库尔德工人党(Kurdistan Workers' party)有关联，这个事实正在促使拉卡市民加入ISIS阵营。YPG被视为与叙利亚政权关系密切，据称该组织还参与了在叙利亚北部驱逐阿拉伯家庭的行动，大赦国际(Amnesty International)称这些行为可能构成战争罪。让人深思的是，一个美国支持的组织居然批评五角大楼支持的YPG打击曾经杀死其部分成员的ISIS。

Such divisions offer Isis an opportunity to present itself as a custodian of the Sunni — especially in Iraq, where it has established itself as the only Sunni militant group able to stand up to militias supporting the Shia-dominated government. The fear is that a similar scenario will play out in Syria in the next few years; primarily in places such as Raqqa, where local resistance has been weak.

这些分裂为ISIS提供了把自己包装成逊尼派卫士的机会——特别是在伊拉克，ISIS将自己塑造成了唯一具有战斗力的逊尼派武装组织，能够抗衡那些支持什叶派主导政府的民兵组织。令人担忧的是，未来几年类似的一幕将在叙利亚上演，尤其是在地方抵抗力量薄弱的拉卡等地。

The sectarian situation emerging in Falluja and Raqqa, and the responses across the region, is one the US has long sought to avoid. It began training Sunni forces to retake cities such as Mosul and Raqqa, an effort that faded when forces in Baghdad resisted a bill to establish a national guard including Sunni units. But with this campaign, backed by groups abhorred by residents of the two cities, it seems to have privileged a tactical victory against Isis over a strategic one.

费卢杰、拉卡加剧的宗派冲突以及在整个地区引发的反应，是美国长期力图避免的局面。美国最初曾训练逊尼派武装力量，以求收复摩苏尔、拉卡等城市，但在建立一支包括逊尼派部队的国民警卫队的议案遭巴格达当局抵制后，这方面的努力不了了之。但从目前的战役（由这两个城市居民痛恨的组织参与）可以看出，在打击ISIS方面，美国似乎更迫切希望获得一场战术而非战略上的胜利。

It looks likely to provide Isis with a gift it has long wanted, especially in Syria: creating for ordinary people the perception that their choice is between its own jihadis and militias they see as invaders.

这有可能为ISIS送上一份其期待已久的礼物——尤其是在叙利亚：让普通民众感觉自己要在ISIS的圣战分子与他们视为入侵者的武装分子之间作出选择。