将恐怖组织斩首未必解决问题

The effect of taking out leading terrorists is not easy for even so-called experts to predict.

即使是所谓的专家，也无法轻易预测杀死恐怖分子领导者所带来的影响。

So it is with the death, announced by Isis, of Abu Muhammad al-Adnani.

伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国(ISIS)宣布的阿布•穆罕默德•阿德纳尼(Abu Muhammad al-Adnani)的死亡也是如此。

head of the external relations and propaganda unit of the ultra-hardline jihadist group and the man who in 2012 announced the creation of a caliphate across Syrian and Iraqi borders.

作为这个极端强硬的圣战组织中负责对外关系和宣传部门的头目，正是他在2012年宣布跨越叙利亚和伊拉克边境建立一个哈里发国。

He was targeted in a US air-strike on Tuesday.

上周二他成了美国的空袭目标。

As one of the founding members of Isis and a militant with its precursor, al-Qaeda in Iraq, he undoubtedly brought operational know-how to the group.

作为ISIS前身伊拉克基地组织(al-Qaeda in Iraq)的一名武装分子、以及ISIS创始成员之一，阿德纳尼无疑给ISIS带来了行动经验。

Undoubtedly, too, he has played a potent role in inciting terrorism abroad, both in the west and across the Middle East — although it is less known how significant he was in the logistics behind recent atrocities.

同样无疑的是，无论是在西方还是在中东各国，他在煽动境外恐怖主义方面发挥了强有力的作用——尽管他在近期的恐怖主义暴行的筹划活动中扮演了多么重大的角色较少为人所知。

As head of the Isis propaganda machine he was gruesomely effective, his appeals for Isis followers to slay non-Muslims in the west eerily previewed the brutal simplicity of recent attacks, including last month’s mass-casualty seafront killings in Nice in by a fanatic armed with just a truck.

作为ISIS宣传机器的头目，阿德纳尼有效得可怕，他向ISIS追随者发出的杀死西方非穆斯林的呼吁成为最近一波简单而野蛮的恐袭的诡异预告，包括上月法国尼斯(Nice)海滨一名极端分子用一辆卡车造成的大规模死伤事件。

Smash his head with a rock, or slaughter him with a knife, or run him over with your car, or throw him down from a high place, or choke him, or poison him, he pronounced in 2014.

用石头砸碎他的头，用一把刀刺死他，用你的车碾过他，把他从高处扔下去，掐死他，或者毒死他，他在2014年宣告。

His death is surely damaging to Isis at a time when the group is under mounting pressure from US, Russian and Iranian allied forces in both Syria and Iraq, and after the loss of so many other combat leaders.

在ISIS于叙利亚和伊拉克两地面临来自美国、俄罗斯和伊朗联军日益增大的压力之时，在ISIS损失如此多其他战场指挥官后，他的死必然会给ISIS造成打击。

In and of itself, it is unlikely to prove decisive.

但这件事本身不太可能被证明具有决定性意义。

Al-Qaeda itself has no doubt been weakened by the US killing of Osama bin-Laden in 2011.

美国2011年杀死奥萨马•本拉登(Osama bin Laden)无疑削弱了基地组织。

But al-Qaeda’s offshoots and affiliates have proved more deadly since bin-Laden’s death, if less able to mount the kind of mass-casualty spectaculars that gave their founding leader his notoriety.

但在本拉登死后，事实证明基地组织的分支和附属变得更加致命，尽管他们不具备令创始人本拉登臭名昭著的造成大规模伤亡的能力。