特朗普有望点燃“动物精神”

The election of Donald Trump has generated lots of startling statistics. Here is another: Ray Dalio, head of the Bridgewater hedge fund, crunched the biographies of the incoming administration and found that the top eight officials have a total of just 55 years of government experience, much of which was in the military.

唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)当选为美国总统产生了许多令人吃惊的统计数据。这里还有一个：对冲基金桥水公司(Bridgewater)掌门人雷?戴利奥(Ray Dalio)挖掘了新政府官员的生平，结果发现，8位最高层官员总计只有55年的政府经历，其中很大一部分还是在军队。

That is paltry compared to the past eight presidents. Barack Obama’s top team (president, vice-president, chief of staff, attorney-general, and secretaries of state, commerce, defence and treasury) had 117 years of collective experience; for the presidencies of George W Bush, Bill Clinton and George HW Bush, it was 80, 101 and 79 respectively.

这与过去8位总统相比微不足道。巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)的最高团队（总统、副总统、幕僚长、司法部长、国务卿、商务部长、国防部长和财政部长）总共拥有117年的政府经历；乔治?W?布什(George W. Bush)、比尔?克林顿(Bill Clinton)和乔治?HW?布什(George HW Bush)总统手下最高层官员的政府经历总长分别是80年、101年和79年。

Mr Trump’s top team has, however, spent a collective 83 years’ in business. Mr Obama’s administration had just five — yes, five — years.

然而，特朗普的最高团队总共拥有83年的商界经历，而奥巴马政府只有5年的商界经历，没错，就是5年。

So the defining feature of Team Trump is not simply that many are ultra rich; it is that they are C-suite hardened. The junior appointments now being made reinforce that pattern. This week, for example, Mr Trump put the Securities and Exchange Commissionin the hands of Jay Clayton, a private sector lawyer who has never worked in government.

因此，特朗普团队的标志性特征不只是许多人都是超级富翁；而是有很多人经过了企业最高管理职务的历练。近来任命的较低级职位强化了这种模式。例如，近日特朗普让杰伊?克莱顿(Jay Clayton)执掌美国证交会(SEC)，而克莱顿是一位从未在政府部门工作过的私营部门律师。

Is this good for American business? One might suggest that some of Mr Trump’s appointments say more about his style than policy substance, in that he prefers to pick people of a similar bent to him, namely government outsiders who hate bureaucratic processes, and stress tangible results.

这有利于美国企业吗？有人可能认为，特朗普的一些任命更多地体现了他的风格，而非实质性的政策内容，因为他倾向于选择与自己意气相投的人，即憎恶官僚程序、重视实质成果的政府外部人士。

This could be energising. But it is not clear if a team of “doers” will have a coordinating ideology, let alone the diplomatic skills needed to get anything done with Congress. It is also alarming that the appointment of this C-suite team has not stopped Mr Trump’s populist anti-business potshots.

这可能令人振奋。但目前尚不清楚的是，一个“实干家”团队能不能拿出一套协调的意识形态，更不用说推动国会合作所需的外交技能了。同时还令人震惊的是，任命这个由前高管组成的团队，并没有阻止特朗普对企业发出民粹主义的抨击。

This week General Motors was in the crosshairs of Mr Trump’s Twitter feed (for producing cars in Mexico). Previously it was Ford (which has just cancelled an investment in Mexico because of the pressure). Boeing, Apple and Carrier have been targeted too, and others will follow. This is not the normal behaviour of a business-friendly president.

最近，通用汽车(General Motors)因为在墨西哥生产汽车而成为特朗普在Twitter上发文攻击的目标。在它之前是福特(Ford)，该公司在压力之下取消了一个墨西哥投资项目。波音(Boeing)、苹果(Apple)和开利(Carrier)也曾是特朗普的攻击目标，接下来肯定会有其他公司。这不是一个亲商的总统的正常行为。

But business psychology — like Washington politics — can be perverse. And what is striking is that every executive I have spoken to recently is determinedly upbeat. “The thing that has impressed me in recent weeks is the change in the animal spirits among business, small and large,” David Cote, chairman and chief executive of Honeywell, told me this week. “There is no doubt about it — a sense of optimism is there.” That is partly due to Mr Trump’s policy proposals, which feature pro-business measures such as tax reforms, deregulation and investment incentives. But the other factor is Mr Dalio’s data point — those 83 years of C-suite experience.

但是商业心理（与华盛顿政治一样）可能是逆反的。引人注目的是，最近与我交谈的所有高管都坚定地表示乐观。霍尼韦尔(Honeywell)董事长兼首席执行官高德威(David Cote)上周告诉我：“最近几周令我印象深刻的事情是企业动物精神的改变，无论大企业还是小企业都是如此。这一点确定无疑——人们感到乐观。”这在一定程度上归因于特朗普的政策提议，他提出了税收改革、放松监管和投资激励等亲商的措施。但另一个因素是戴利奥的数据点——特朗普政府高层总计83年的高管经历。

While nobody knows whether Mr Trump will actually get anything done (nor whether the Federal Reserve will respond to tax cuts by raising rates), business leaders can see the symbolic shift represented by those cabinet picks.

尽管没有人知道特朗普能否真的做成任何事情（也没有人知道美联储是否会通过加息来回应减税），但商界领袖们可以看到内阁人选所代表的象征性转变。

And while nobody can create economic growth with mere symbolism, symbols can have a powerful psychological impact. “We are about to experience a profound, president-led ideological shift,” Mr Dalio argues. “This could have a much bigger impact on the US economy than one would calculate on the basis of changes in tax and spending policies alone, because it could ignite animal spirits.”

尽管没有人仅仅靠象征主义就能创造经济增长，但象征可能产生强大的心理影响。戴利奥辩称：“我们将会经历一个深远的、由总统主导的意识形态转变。它对美国经济的影响，可能远远大于人们仅仅基于税收和支出政策变动得出的计算结果，因为它可能点燃动物精神。”

As Jeff Immelt, CEO of General Electricrecently observed: “You just hear a lot more optimism: people thinking about [investment] projects that we weren’t thinking about before?.?.?.?The sense that we might modernise our tax code?.?.?.?gets people thinking in a different way.”

正如通用电气(General Electric)首席执行官杰夫?伊梅尔特(Jeff Immelt)所评论的那样：“你听到了更多的乐观想法：人们正在考虑我们此前没有考虑过的（投资）项目……有关我们可能推动税法现代化的感觉……让人们以不同的方式思考。”

Such optimism might be misplaced. But it cannot be ignored. The key point for investors is to watch what Mr Trump’s C-suite team actually does on the policy front in the coming months — and also to watch what companies such as GE do with their investment plans.

此类乐观情绪可能是错位的，但不能忽视它。对投资者来说，关键是观察特朗普的前高管团队未来几个月在政策方面做什么，同时也要观察通用电气等公司在投资计划上有什么动作。

That is not just because of Mr Trump’s populist tweets. In economic terms bullying Ford into keeping one car plant in America is almost irrelevant. But if American companies are getting ready to unleash more investment, as Mr Immelt says, this could be truly significant; particularly given that capital expenditure has been so disappointingly weak in recent years.

这不只是因为特朗普的民粹主义推文。在经济意义上，胁迫福特在美国保留一家汽车厂几乎是无关紧要的。但如果美国企业像伊梅尔特所说的那样准备加大投资，这可能真的意义重大，尤其是考虑到最近几年的资本支出疲弱得令人失望。

All eyes, then, on the next set of capex statistics; and on the corporate plans that the real C-suite executives will release when they issue their earnings later this month — just as Mr Trump’s C-suite cabinet is being sworn in.

因此，所有人都会关注下一轮的资本支出统计数据，以及真正的企业高管们在本月晚些时候发布财报时公布的企业计划——特朗普的前高管内阁也将在那时宣誓就职。