马克龙改革成败的意义

As Emmanuel Macron savours his victory in the French presidential election, he might consider the words of John Maynard Keynes in an open letter, written to Franklin Roosevelt in December 1933. The British economist told the US president: “You have made yourself the Trustee for those in every country who seek to mend the evils of our condition by reasoned experiment within the framework of the existing social system. If you fail, rational change will be gravely prejudiced throughout the world, leaving orthodoxy and revolution to fight it out.”

当埃马纽埃尔?马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)回味此次法国总统大选胜利时，他或许会思考约翰?梅纳德?凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)在1933年12月写给富兰克林?罗斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)的一封公开信中的话。这位英国经济学家对美国总统说：“您已经使您自己成为各国有志于在现行社会制度的框架内进行合理的实验以改正我们所面临的弊端的受托人。如果您失败了，合乎理性的变革将在全世界蒙受严重的损失，而听任正统力量与革命去一决雌雄。”

France does not have a global role comparable to the US. But it is certainly true that the success or failure of the new president will matter well beyond France — and even well beyond Europe. If Mr Macron succeeds, the forces of nationalism and political extremism — represented in France by his defeated opponent, Marine Le Pen — will suffer a setback around the world. But if he fails, populism, nationalism and protectionism will soon be resurgent.

法国在全球的角色无法与美国相提并论。但毫无疑问，法国新总统的成败带来的影响将远远超出法国，甚至远超出欧洲。如果马克龙成功了，各种民族主义、政治极端主义势力——在法国以被他打败的对手马琳?勒庞(Marine Le Pen)为代表人物——将在世界各地遭遇挫败。但如果他失败的话，民粹主义、民族主义和保护主义很快将再度泛起。

For while Mr Macron can savour a crushing victory over Ms Le Pen, he also knows that 35 per cent of French voters have just voted for a far-right candidate. The cumulative vote for extremists of the far left and the far right in the first round of the presidential election was closer to 50 per cent. That means that almost half of French voters want to smash “the system”.

因为，虽然马克龙可以得意于对勒庞的压倒性胜利，但他也深知，35%的法国选民刚刚把票投给了一位极右翼候选人。在首轮总统选举投票中，极左和极右翼候选人合计得票接近50%。这意味着，几乎一半的法国选民希望砸烂“体制”。

It is Mr Macron’s job to show that the system can work better. If he fails, then, as Keynes put it in the 1930s, “rational change will be gravely prejudiced throughout the world”.

马克龙肩负着如下责任：向民众证明这一体制能够运行得更好。如果他失败了，那么——正如凯恩斯在上世纪30年代所言——“合乎理性的变革将在全世界蒙受严重的损失”。

The chances of failure are quite high. Mr Macron has simultaneously to reinvigorate the French economy and the “European project”. Both are notoriously difficult to reform and face deep structural challenges that might defeat even the most imaginative and dynamic politician.

马克龙失败的可能性相当高。马克龙必须同时重振法国经济和“欧洲计划(European project)”。两者都是出了名的难以改革，还面临着深层结构性挑战，这些挑战甚至可能让最具想象力、最有活力的政治家没招。

The tasks of reform at home and in Europe are linked. Unless he can demonstrate to the German government that France is genuinely changing, then the Germans are unlikely to take the risk on the much-deeper EU integration that Mr Macron thinks (probably correctly) is necessary to make the European single currency work.

法国国内改革与欧洲改革的任务是相互关联的。除非马克龙能够向德国政府证明法国真的正在变革，否则，德国人不大可能冒险推进更深层次的欧盟一体化，而马克龙认为（他很可能正确）只有这样做才能使欧洲单一货币成功。

At home, the challenges he faces are pretty obvious. The French state is abnormally large, with government spending accounting for 56 per cent of gross domestic product. The private sector is over-regulated and the public finances are over-stretched. Reducing the size of the state and making the labour market more flexible should help to generate jobs and economic growth. But any efforts at neoliberal reforms will inevitably face passionate resistance from the far left, the far right, the unions and a large part of the political establishment. Street demonstrations have stopped previous efforts at economic reform in their tracks for 20 years and more.

在国内，马克龙面临的挑战更显而易见。法国政府异常庞大，政府支出占国内生产总值(GDP)的56%。私营部门受到过度监管，公共财政不堪重负。缩小政府规模、让劳动力市场更具弹性应该有助于创造就业和推动经济增长。但是，任何新自由主义改革努力都将不可避免地遭到来自极左、极右、工会以及大部分政治建制力量的强烈抵制。在不止20年时间里，街头示威已经一次次扼杀此前的经济改革努力。

Mr Macron’s domestic political base is also fragile. He is, in some ways, an accidental president whose victory was achieved partly because the traditional centre-right and centre-left parties chose unelectable candidates, hamstrung either by extremism or by personal scandal. There is a strong chance that Mr Macron’s new political movement, En Marche!, may not gain enough seats in parliamentary elections in June to allow the new president to get his agenda through, without forming an unstable coalition.

马克龙在国内的政治基础也比较脆弱。在某些程度上，他是一位意外当选的总统，他的胜选部分是因为传统的中右翼和中左翼政党选出了不太可能当选的候选人——要么是因为秉持极端主义，要么是因为个人的丑闻。马克龙的新政治运动“前进”(En Marche!)很可能无法在6月的议会选举中赢得足够席位，除非他组建联合政府（联合政府是不稳定的），否则他将无法让议会通过他的议程。

But Mr Macron’s position as a political newcomer could also be an advantage if he can carve out a new space in the political centre-ground. As a former minister in a Socialist government, Mr Macron could send a bold signal by appointing a prime minister from the opposite political tribe, the centre right. If he can pull in enough support from the right, while retaining the support of the reformist wing of the Socialist party, he could yet create the backing he needs to push through reforms — for example to the country’s 35-hour working week.

但如果马克龙可以为中间派开拓出一块新空间，他作为政治新手的角色可能也是一项优势。曾经在社会党政府担任部长的他，可能通过从对立的中右翼阵营中任命一位首相来发出一个大胆的信号。如果他可以从右翼获得足够支持，同时依然拥有社会党改革派的支持，他可能会赢得推动改革（比如改革法国的35个小时工作制）所必需的支持。

The problem of opposition on the streets will be real and will have to be faced down. An early pay increase for the police, many of whom will have voted for Ms Le Pen, might be advisable.

反对者走上街头的问题是切实存在的，必须强硬面对。提早为警察加薪（很多警察可能把票投给了勒庞），或许是明智之举。

If Mr Macron can demonstrate that he is really reforming France, he might then gain the credibility to go to Berlin and demand reforms to the EU. The government of Angela Merkel has been understandably wary of French calls for a loosening of austerity in Europe or for the issuing of common EU debt, believing that they ultimately come down to a desire that thrifty German taxpayers should fund the profligate French state. But there is also a growing awareness in some parts of the German government (the foreign ministry more than the finance ministry) that a failure to give some ground to France and Italy could ultimately prove disastrous for Germany itself, if it means that reformists like Mr Macron fail, and are replaced by radical populists such as Ms Le Pen.

如果马克龙可以证明他真的在改革法国，那他可能得到足够的可信度，能够前往柏林，要求对欧盟进行改革。出于可以理解的理由，安格拉?默克尔(Angela Merkel)政府一直对法国的如下呼吁心存警惕：在欧洲放松紧缩；发行欧盟共同债务。默克尔政府认为，这些呼吁归根结底是希望节俭的德国纳税人来资助肆意挥霍的法国政府。但德国政府部分部门也日益认识到（外交部的体会比财政部更深），如果不向法国和意大利做出一些让步——如果这意味着像马克龙这样的改革派失败了，被勒庞这样的激进民粹主义者取而代之——可能最终对德国本身带来灾难性后果。

The election of Mr Macron will also be greeted warily in London, where it is feared that his passionate defence of the EU will translate into a particularly tough line on Brexit. But a more confident France and a revived EU might be less inclined to see Brexit as a mortal threat, and so more willing to strike a win-win deal that keeps markets open and alliances intact.

伦敦方面也将谨慎地欢迎马克龙的当选，前者担心马克龙保卫欧盟的热情可能转化为对英国退欧的强硬立场。但一个更自信的法国和一个复兴的欧盟，可能会不那么倾向于把英国退欧视为致命威胁，因而更愿意敲定一份双赢的协议，来保持市场的开放和联盟关系的完好无损。

There really is a lot riding on the success of President Macron — and not just in France.

法国总统马克龙的胜利确实关系着很多事情——不只是在法国。