韩国的新面孔与新机会

The victory of Moon Jae-in in South Korea’s presidential election was widely expected, but is no less welcome for that. He has a chance to stop the political rot in a country whose democratic development has not always kept pace with its remarkable economic growth.

文在寅(Moon Jae-in)在韩国总统大选中获胜在外界普遍意料之中，但这个结果带来的由衷欣喜并不因此而减损。他有机会止住韩国的政治溃烂——这个国家的民主进程有时未跟上其令人瞩目的经济增长。

The period running up to the election has shown Korea’s political weaknesses overcome by its strengths. The deep-rooted corruption in the nexus between politics and business was laid bare in a bribery scandal that eventually engulfed the country’s first female president, Park Geun-hye. Yet the system proved capable, on this occasion, of addressing the problem. The legislative and judicial branches of government managed to hold a corrupt executive to account. Ms Park was impeached in the national legislature and the decision upheld by Korea’s constitutional court.

大选之前的那段时期，是韩国的政治长处克服了其政治短处的证明。政商关系中根深蒂固的腐败在一桩贿赂丑闻中暴露无遗，这桩丑闻最终吞噬韩国首位女总统朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)。然而在这件事中，该体制被证明有能力应对这个问题。韩国政治体制的立法和司法分支成功追究了腐败行政分支的责任。朴槿惠在韩国国会遭到弹劾，韩国宪法法院做出支持这一决定的裁决。

The subsequent electoral victory for Mr Moon, a former human rights lawyer from the opposition Democratic party, promises a possibility for change that goes beyond simply electing another politician to continue the existing patterns of governance. Mr Moon has the chance to clean up Korea’s murky political culture, strengthen the norms of corporate governance, boost the productive potential of an underperforming economy, and even establish a position in foreign policy that gives Seoul its proper role in confronting the problems of North Korea.

后来文在寅在大选中获胜，为可能的改变带来了希望，这种改变不仅仅是选举出一位新的政客、继续现有治理模式。文在寅来自韩国反对党共同民主党，曾是一位人权律师。他有机会整顿韩国浑浊的政治文化、加强公司治理标准、提升表现不佳的韩国经济的生产率潜力，甚至确立一种外交政策立场，让韩国在应对朝鲜问题方面发挥起应有的作用。

It is in the last of these issues, perhaps, where the greatest uncertainties and biggest risks lie. South Korea is caught between the two foreign policy hegemons of Asia — the US, whose influence has been waning but which nonetheless retains a strategic role, and China, which has become increasingly assertive in the region.

或许最大的不确定性和最大的风险在于最后一个问题。韩国被夹在亚洲外交政策两个霸主之间：一个是美国，它的影响力在滑坡，但仍扮演着战略角色；另一个是中国，该国在亚洲正变得越来越强硬。

Mr Moon should not be intimidated into breaking strong links with the US, particularly if he wants to play a greater role in dealing with North Korea. To the displeasure of Beijing, South Korea has started to deploy Thaad, a US-built missile defence shield that signals a willingness to deter aggression from Pyongyang. Mr Moon has said the issue needs to be looked at again. Pushing ahead with the system would send a useful signal that Seoul will not simply back down in the face of pressure from China.

文在寅不应因胆怯而背弃与美国的紧密关系，特别是如果他想在与朝鲜打交道时发挥更大作用。韩国已经开始部署末段高空区域防御系统（THAAD，中文简称：萨德），令北京感到不悦。这个美国制造的导弹防御系统表明，韩国决意通过威慑阻止来自平壤的侵略。文在寅已表示需要重新审视这个问题。推进该防御系统将释放一个有用信号：面对中国的压力，首尔不会一味退让。