Lex专栏 微软特赦盗版的背后

It is not easy being Microsoft. The price of its Windows operating system, the foundation of its empire, is falling for personal computers. At the same time the market for PCs, on which Windows is installed, stagnates. Microsoft analysts have been busy cutting revenue targets.

微软(Microsoft)如今的处境实属不易。Windows是这个商业帝国的根基，而该操作系统应用于个人电脑(PC)的版本的价格在不断下滑。同时，PC市场停止了增长。关注微软的分析师们频频下调该公司营收预测。

What might happen if this continues — if the price of a Windows operating system on a personal computer drops to zero? It is currently roughly $35, Stifel estimates, but is heading that way. Chinese users with pirated versions of Windows 7 or Windows 8 will get free Windows 10 upgrades this summer, Microsoft announced this week. There are hundreds of millions of Windows users in China; three-quarters of them use pirated versions.

如果这种情况持续下去，会出现什么结果呢？倘若PC版Windows的价格降到了零呢？据Stifel估计目前Windows售价在35美元左右，但看来它正朝着零的方向下滑。微软本周宣布，使用盗版Windows 7或Windows 8系统的中国用户今年夏天将可免费升级为正版Windows 10。中国有数亿Windows用户，其中3/4用户使用盗版Windows。

The amnesty points to a broader challenge: more and more operating systems are free. Google gives its PC operating system away — fuelling cheap Chromebooks that have sold like hot cakes. Apple’s operating systems are baked into the price of the device. The $40-a-pop operating system for consumer PCs is never coming back.

此项特赦令折射出微软面临一个更大的挑战：免费操作系统越来越多。谷歌(Google)的PC操作系统就是免费的——预装Chrome系统的笔记本电脑因为价格低廉而热销。苹果(Apple)操作系统的价格已经嵌入其设备的价格中。40美元一套的家用PC操作系统大势已去。

In its place, Microsoft’s revenues will gradually rely more on the services and applications that run on top of Windows. These include things such as Skype, Office, and OneDrive on the consumer side; and cloud computing and commercial Office subscriptions on the enterprise side. This is not such a dim prospect. Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing platform, signs up more than 10,000 new customers per week, and its revenue growth is in the triple digits. Hardware sales have also been strong. And corporate support agreements will continue to bolster Microsoft’s enterprise revenues.

微软今后的营收将更依赖于在Windows平台上运行的设备及应用，包括Skype、Office、OneDrive之类的个人端应用，以及云计算和商用版Office等企业端服务。这样的前景不算坏。微软的云计算平台Azure每周新签约用户超过1万，营收增速达三位数。硬件销售也保持强劲。同时，企业支持协议将继续支撑微软企业业务的营收。

In the near term though, Microsoft’s sales will be under pressure from the transition. Two years ago, the last time Microsoft did investors the favour of providing a clean Windows sales number, Windows represented over a fifth of sales. Given that the shares have risen 50 per cent in the past two years, some air may come out of the stock.

不过，近期来看，微软的销售额将承受来自转型的压力。上一次微软向投资者提供漂亮的Windows销售数据是在两年前，当时Windows占到总销售额的1/5以上。考虑到过去两年间微软股价上涨了50%，其股票可能会挤出一些气泡。