中国化工与中化合并意在先正达?

The anticipated megamerger of ChemChina and Sinochem implies there is a common thread linking China’s planned economy and countries with freer markets. China says it wants to reduce production capacity. Takeovers in mature industries in Europe and the US often have the same motive. But it would be a mistake to pursue parallels too far.

外界预料，中国化工(ChemChina)和中化集团(Sinochem)将进行合并。由此可见，中国的计划经济与拥有更自由市场的国家之间存在一个共同点。中国表达了“去产能”意愿。在欧洲和美国的成熟工业中，收购也往往是出于同样的动机。然而，如果你过度去追寻二者之间的相似之处，那就大错特错了。

An implicit aim of some consolidators in the west is to remove capacity so as to raise prices. Antitrust watchdogs may try to block aggressive efforts to reduce competition, but deal doers still pray that better pricing will lift margins, in tandem with cost cutting. That should be easier in basic industries such as steel, aluminium and chemicals. China has a lot of these, but it may balk at tightening output to raise prices, preferring to subsidise output that cannot make a decent return.

西方一些并购者的隐含目的是削减产能，以提高产品价格。反垄断机构可能会尝试阻止寻求减少竞争的激进并购，但交易方仍寄望于更好的定价辅之以成本削减措施将可提高利润率。这在钢铁、铝和化工等基础工业中应该更容易做到。中国有很多此类工业，但它可能不愿收缩生产来提高价格，而倾向于补贴效益不怎么样的生产活动。

Chinese media has been extolling government efforts to cut capacity. Easy to envisage the combination of ChemChina and Sinochem to create a group with sales of some $100bn as part of that plan, alongside a rumoured mash-up of state energy groups.

中国媒体一直在称颂政府推进去产能的努力。中国化工和中化集团合并将组成一家年销售额约1000亿美元的集团，这种规模的合并，还有近期有关国有能源集团合并的传言，很容易被想象成政府去产能计划的一部分。