印尼百货 好股不便宜

Want a business with sales growing on average 30 per cent a year in a fast-growing economy and that targets precisely the rising middle class generating the growth? On that basis, Matahari Department Stores’ refloat in Jakarta should be an easy sell. But the heady asking price highlights something else: emerging markets look relatively cheap, but the best opportunities are not.

想在快速增长的经济体找到一家年平均销售增长30%、瞄准推动这一增长的不断壮大的中产阶级的企业？按此标准，马泰哈利百货(Matahari Department Stores)在雅加达交易所的配股发售应会大卖。然而其偏高的要价却突显了其它信号：新兴市场看起来相对便宜，但最好的机会却不便宜。

Developed markets’ premiums over emerging markets, in terms of forward price-earnings ratios, are at their highest in at least five years at 14 and 11 times respectively, based on MSCI’s global indices. But Matahari is asking between 25 and 28 times 2013 estimates for the up-to-$1.4bn in shares it is offering. That compares with Macy’s and Marks and Spencer trading at 11 times and China’s Golden Eagle Retail at 18 times. In favour of the high multiple is the fact that Indonesia’s consumers are justifiably exciting investors. Real private consumption has been growing at more than 5 per cent and domestic demand is expected to grow by a very healthy about-6 per cent this year. CLSA expects the middle class – those with more than $3,000 a year in disposable income – to make up about 30 per cent of the population by 2016, double 2010 levels. Matahari has a dominant 30 per cent of the department store market. And next to peers such as Robinson Department Store of Thailand at 34 times 2013 earnings, or even countryman Ace Hardware at 30 times, Matahari is not asking the world. Especially since it will be more liquid, courtesy of a two-fifths free-float compared with its peers’ one-third offering.

根据摩根士丹利资本国际指数，发达市场相对于新兴市场的溢价正处于至少5年来的顶峰，以预期市盈率计，分别为14倍和11倍。但马泰哈利对最高达14亿美元的股票发售，要价高达25至28倍于其2013年的预测盈利。与此相比，梅西(Macy)和马莎百货(Marks and Spencer)的市盈率为11倍，而中国的金鹰商贸集团(Golden Eagle Retail)的市盈率为18倍。支持这么高市盈率的事实是，印尼的消费者有理由让投资者振奋。近年实际私人消费年均增长超过5%，预计今年的国内需求将以6%这一非常健康的速度增长。里昂证券(CLSA)预计, 到2016年，那些可支配收入超过3000美元一年的中产阶级人数将占总人口的30%，两倍于2010年的水平。马泰哈利在百货市场中占30%份额的主导地位。相比同级别的同行如泰国Robinson百货（34倍于2013年预期盈利），或其同胞Ace Hardware（30倍市盈率），马泰哈利并非漫天要价。尤其是它的流动性将会更大，得益于其五分之二的流通股，相比其同行的三分之一。

But investors could have bought either Ace or Robinson at half their current p/e in 2008 – before prices took off. Matahari-style dominant players in fast-growing emerging markets do not often come along in sufficient investment size. And the sellers of this one know it.

但投资者本可以在2008年（价格飙升以前），以相当于目前市盈率一半水平的价格购买Ace或Robinson的股票。快速增长的新兴市场中，类似马泰哈利式的主导玩家，不会经常提供这么大规模的投资机会。卖家深知这一点