中国经济放缓并非一定伤及就业

China's economic policy makers have trained their sights on the twin goals of growth and employment, insisting that growth needs to be near current levels to create enough new jobs.

中国经济决策者专注于增长和就业的双重目标，坚信经济增长需要接近当前水平才能创造足够多的新工作岗位。

The government wants to create 10 million urban jobs and keep the official urban employment rate under 4.6%. Doing so, they believe, is key to ensuring social stability.

中国政府希望创造1,000万个城镇就业岗位，使官方城镇失业率保持在4.6%以下。他们相信这是确保社会稳定的关键。

But many economists say that the official reasoning is flawed and that China could withstand lower growth levels than the 2014 target of about 7.5% and still get all the jobs it needs to meet targets.

但很多经济学家表示，官方给出的逻辑存在缺陷，中国可以承受比2014年7.5%左右的增长目标更低的增速，同时仍能创造足够多的就业岗位。

'The relation between GDP and jobs is not that clear,' said Shen Minggao, head of China research with Citigroup. 'Maybe if growth slows to 6% jobs would still be OK.'

花旗集团(Citigroup)中国研究部负责人沈明高表示，国内生产总值(GDP)与就业之间的关系并不是那么明确。他指出，也许经济增速放缓至6%，就业状况仍然没问题。

The official growth target - often referred to as a 'bottom line' for government leaders - is a sensitive issue. For years, planners set a target of 8% even when actual growth breezed past that level - which was more of an acceptable minimum.

官方的经济增长目标（常常被称为政府领导人的底线）是一个敏感问题。多年来，”保八”一直是中国政府设定的目标，即便实际增速远超出这个水平――8%的增长目标作为底线的意义更大一些。

Growth has been slowing more recently, reflecting sluggish global demand and problems at home - not to mention the economy now needs to expand from a much bigger base.

近期中国经济放缓幅度扩大，暴露出全球需求疲软和国内存在的各种问题，更不用说中国经济目前的比较基数比从前大得多。

But the job situation has remained stable. The official unemployment rate is well within the government's broad boundaries - at 4.08% in the first quarter, up marginally from 4.05% at the end of last year.

然而中国的就业形势却依然稳定。官方公布的失业率仍在政府设定的大致范围内，第一季度为4.08%，仅略高于去年年底的4.05%。

Employment data so far this year show considerable elasticity in the job market. The first quarter jobs survey released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security showed 111 jobs for every 100 people seeking employment and that the job vacancy level had actually increased over the previous quarter.

今年以来，就业数据显示劳动力市场有相当大的弹性。人力资源和社会保障部公布的第一季度就业调查显示，每100名求职者对应着111个空缺岗位，岗位空缺水平实际上较前一季度上升。

The unofficial 'survey' unemployment rate - which unlike the official figure also covers joblessness among migrant workers who comprise the bulk of the labor force - was a still tolerable 5.17% in March.

3月份非官方调查的失业率为5.17%，处于可以接受范围。与官方数据不同的是，非官方数据囊括了在劳动力中占一大部分的农民工的就业情况。

Growth of jobs has eased due to the slowing economic expansion. But demand for labor has remained resilient across much of the economy - from manufacturing and retail, as well as transport, construction and computer services.

由于经济扩张放慢，就业增长也趋缓。但从制造业到零售业、再到交通运输、建筑和电脑服务业，中国大部分经济领域的劳动力需求仍保持弹性。

Combine that with China's aging population - which has meant a decline in the ranks of the nation's working age people (down 2.4 million last year to 920 million) - - and the nation's leaders have a cushion when it comes to unemployment levels.

这种情况再加上中国的老龄化状况，令中国领导人在失业率问题上有了缓冲余地。老龄化意味着中国劳动年龄人口数量下滑（去年减少了240万人，至9.2亿人）。

Whether China has wiggle room to allow lower growth without sparking higher unemployment is crucial. Many economists hoped China would set a lower target for this year, sacrificing some short-term expansion in an effort to make longer term economic adjustments. They argue the current credit-fueled growth model cannot be sustained over the longer term.

中国在允许经济增长放缓但不推高失业率方面是否有回旋余地至关重要。很多经济学家此前希望中国将今年的经济增长目标设定在较低水平，牺牲一些短期经济扩张，借此完成较长期的经济调整。他们认为，当前由信贷驱动的经济增长模式无法长期持续。

China's leaders have acknowledged the need for new growth drivers and have said they want to make consumption a bigger factor, while reducing the reliance on investment and exports over the longer term.

中国领导人已经承认需要新的经济增长推动力，并称他们希望在长期内提高消费的贡献力量，同时降低经济对投资和出口的依赖。

A structural overhaul will mean job losses in some parts of the state sector - from big employers like the resource sector to clearly non-strategic companies that don't want to see more competition from private interests.

结构性调整将意味着国有经济领域中一些部分的工作岗位将会减少，从能源领域等大雇主到不希望面临私有领域更多竞争的非战略公司都是如此。

That may prove politically difficult. But low unemployment gives policy makers more room to act.

这在政治上可能很难。但低失业率让决策者有更多的行动空间。

'It's been obvious for a few years that the old idea that 8% growth was necessary to keep unemployment at bay is now completely wrong, if indeed it was ever right,' said Andrew Batson, China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics, a research firm.

研究公司龙洲经讯(Gavekal Dragonomics)的中国研究主管白安儒(Andrew Batson)说，几年来的情况表明，以往那种必须将经济增幅保持在8%以控制失业的看法现在完全是错误的，即便以前这种看法可能曾经正确过。

'The question is how much more growth would have to slow for a real problem to emerge in the job market, and honestly no one knows the answer to this. Since China hasn't had sustained sub-8% growth in its post-reform history, there are no parallels to work with,' he said.

他说，问题在于，经济增幅要放缓到什么程度才会导致就业市场真正出现问题，老实说这个问题没有人知道答案。由于中国自改革开放以来从未出现过增长持续低于8%的情况，因而没有可类比的情况。

Moreover, economists note that the growth target fails to distinguish between areas that produce large numbers of jobs - like the service sector - and those that do not.

此外，经济学家们指出，经济增长目标没有区分产生大量就业岗位（如服务业）的领域以及另外的领域。

'The rate at which new jobs are created depends as much on the structure of growth as the speed,' said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics.

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席亚洲经济学家威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)说，新岗位被创造的速度取决于增长结构以及增长速度。

'Not all economic activity is equal in terms of its employment effects - property construction absorbs huge numbers of workers, steelmaking doesn't. So the search for a definitive bottom line for GDP growth in terms of its employment effects is futile.'

他说，在创造就业方面，并非所有经济活动都是一样的――房地产建设会吸收大量劳动力，而炼钢则不然，因此以就业效果来设定GDP增幅的绝对底线是没用的。